Jul 22nd 2014, 2:57:34
I'm shocked you have the Heat in that list.
The Heat should still be a good team, but I think they'll be battling for the 4 seed in the East with teams like Atlanta and Washington. Deng's about as good of a replacement as was available for Lebron, but obviously no one can replace Lebron. It'll be interesting to see how they do, because Bosh is going to have to be a star player again instead of simply a stretch 4 (or stretch 5, for that matter) as he was being used as while Lebron was there, and Wade will have to stay healthy.
Cleveland will likely have some growing pains as Kyrie and Lebron learn to play together, and of course as of now, their other key players are mostly young (Bennett, Wiggins). If they get Love, the big question will be how quickly they can form some chemistry and whether they have the players to defend enough to not have to score 100 every night, but with Love, Irving and LBJ, scoring 100 a night shouldn't be too tough to do.
The Bulls hinge entirely on Rose's health, but they've added a better 2nd option in Gasol to replace the amnestied Boozer, they've still got defensive beast and fringe MVP candidate Joakim Noah, and they still have Gibson and Butler, who continue to get better and better, and they've kept most of last year's bench depth, while adding even more with rookies Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic (considered to be good enough that even in this year's very strong draft he would've been a top 5 pick), and of course Aaron Brooks to add depth at PG/SG. Rose doesn't need to be 100% back to his MVP form to begin the season, but they need him to work into form while the team builds chemistry finding roles for their new players. Also, they've probably got the best coach in the Eastern Conference in Thibs.
Lastly, Indiana should be better than the Heat. I think they'll be a bit diminished without Stephenson, and with Hibbert on the trading block, with how fragile his psyche seems to be, they either need to find a way to build him back up or they need to dump him, and I doubt they'll get fair value out of him given how he fell apart last season. Even still, Indiana's got a deep roster and a superstar in Paul George and could very well win the East's top seed again next year.
I don't see how the Heat are ahead of any of those other three teams.
In the West, there's so many powerful teams that the real question is: Can the Spurs, who are obviously still quite dependent on a core of aging players in Parker/Ginobili/Duncan, actually sustain playing through another full season and off season after a year where they had all those extra games from winning the championship. The Spurs have the best coach in the NBA and he's willing to rest his guys, so perhaps they can, but I don't think it's coincidence that the Spurs have failed to go back-to-back in any of their chances recently.
And the Rockets, as good as they are, I just don't think they have the type of players who take you to a championship. Dwight Howard is arguably the best center in the game just because of his natural talent, but it doesn't seem like he ever adds anything to his game or gets any better. James Harden's a damn good SG, but I think he's the type of player that if a defense actually keys on him, he can be pressured into bad shots a lot more easily than many other top stars in the game. He's shot under 40% from the field in the last two postseasons with Houston as the first option, and while Trevor Ariza is a nice pickup, since they lost Chandler Parsons, that's about a push in my opinion, and possibly a loss overall, since Chandler Parsons was already used to playing with this team, and Ariza's going to have to come in and develop his role.
If I had to pick one individual team to win it, I might pick the Spurs or Cavs, but if you're giving me the field or those four teams, I'd take the field. With the Pacers and Bulls in the East and Portland, OKC, and even Golden State out West, I think it's actually a fairly reasonable assertion that none of these four teams you've listed even make an appearance in the Finals.
As far as the last question, clearly the Lebron signing shakes up things the most, but I think Bosh going back to Miami instead of signing with Houston really kind of shook up things as well. It maintains the Heat as still a pretty good team in the East, and also Houston ended up weaker because of the reasons already stated above. They could've been considered the "paper champions" if they could've signed Bosh and kept Parsons.
The thing is: Everyone's down on the East, but I think the few top teams in the East can compete with anyone in the West. I think once you get past the top tier of East teams though, the drop off is significant. Phoenix and Minnesota probably could've been as high as the 4 or 5 seed in the East this past year, but instead they missed the playoffs. I don't think that part is going to change, even if a team like the Bulls, Cavs, or Pacers could conceivably keep up with and possibly beat a team like OKC or San Antonio.
Anyway, that's a really long post to answer your questions. Since you posed the questions, what do you think?
