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Gerdler

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Jun 7th 2022, 0:07:19

This discussion started in another thread on another forum and shouldn't go on there, but I felt inclined to make a short response to this anxious post and try to steel my ally's(irl not in game) nerves for a bit. I failed at the short part. :P

Originally posted by KoHeartsGPA:

You really think that? I don't, i tend to not underestimate my counter parts, i think Russia are quite content with what's happening around the world, their invasion has destabilized the entire world's economy sending the West in particular into a tail spin and complete panic, nah i don't think Russia wasn't prepped, this was a calculated attack, hundreds of millions of dollars are pouring in from the West oil purchases of Russian oil and the Kremlin knows that they have the upper hand, Putin is laughing his ass off watching the West depleting their arsenal by sending weapons to Ukraine, we are witnessing a chess match at a global scale and Russia is kicking our ass with pawns.....

This is very disturbing to watch :-(

1981, remember this number for a while. I'll get back to it later.

On the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far in 3 aspects relating to your economy:

1. NATURAL GAS:
The US is a net natural gas exporter mostly through LNG, and the war jacked up the price, and therefore the value of that natural gas by a factor 2-3. Yes, you might say that American consumers also get higher electricity prices and natural gas prices because of this, but the income goes to American companies that get taxed in the USA and are owned by American investors, including pension funds.

Quick mental maths based on a quick glance at the henry hub spot prices plus googling the US Natural gas production suggests the added value, assuming no extra production(which there will be), will be on the order of $200 billion extra this year which will trickle down to salaries in gas production, drilling/fracking/prospecting companies, service companies, liquefaction /LNG tanker companies, etc etc, and to taxes, pension funds, individual investors, mutual fund investors etc.

Further down the line US and EU signed a long term deal that US delivers LNG to EU for many years to come, which EU is bound to even if the war ends and Russia somehow becomes a reliable partner again. The EU does this for energy security but for the US it's extremely profitable.
EU has further raised the LNG tanker rates globally(which are mostly operated by american companies) and the LNG spot prices such that China, when they come out of lockdowns fully, they will not be able to compete for spot LNG with developed economies like EU, Japan and South Korea because these make far more GDP per energy input (China is far less energy efficient). So for every kWh of natural gas input EU/Japan makes about twice the value of products/services compared to China. Even the USA and India are better than China and therefore China suffers worst of all the major players by higher energy prices, which are globally inflated everywhere now. China also suffers because they are the largest energy importer of all major players.
What China will likely try to do is sign 20-30 year deals for LNG deliveries at the absolute worst times for a buyer to negotiate a price.
----

2. OIL:
One of the more hilarious things Americans voice is concern over gasoline prices. The constant whining over this sounds really silly in a place where we pay significantly more than Californians, and twice that of the rest of the US's pump prices. Further, you make two thirds of your oil, and import most of the rest from your two neighbours. The EU and China are not that lucky. China makes about a third of their own oil, and the EU makes about 5% of their oil.
The EU has a good neighbour in Norway and a bad one in Russia which we desperately try to replace right now, which is impossible in the short term. This is beyond problematic from a security, strategic, diplomatic and economical perspective. All of the EU isn't completely screwed, but central Europe very much is dependent on this trade. I'm not talking economical terms, I’m talking survival terms. There are no alternative routes to supplying these nations with oil and gas and European winters are cold.
Currently American refiners are replacing Russian Diesel on the European market at unheard of margins. Again the EU needs this badly so we are paying very handsomely for it. Not sure this situation is sustainable for long, but you are making billions from these exports currently. It's hard to get a full grasp of the absolute numbers for this and if it will last days or years.

----

3. WEAPONS:
The US is a net exporter of weapons. The war finally made Europe decide to spend 2% of GDP on weapons. This is a huge win for the USA which has been pushing for this for a long time. On top of that many of the weapons Europe will buy will be American made, sold at great profit. Germany will likely buy the F35, Poland may buy F15 or F16 and have already committed to buy M1A1s, several european nations are sending their old soviet era equipment to Ukraine and replacing with american counterparts, etc etc. Also ofc Ukraine is getting tons of weapons paid for by US taxpayers and you might compare the cost of these to the profits elsewhere. Such a simplistic analysis will still result in a profit to America as a whole, albeit spread mainly over people working in/owning the defence industry, or the oil and gas industries. Added inflation and increasing rate hikes will likely cost more than the benefits for most of the rest in pure money terms. This ignores vital aspects though.

Militarily, Russia is still well beyond China(whose military is to a large part made up by russian technology), and those weapons you are sending is de-militarizing your greatest military adversary, cheaply. The weapons are also getting tested in real combat versus this adversary, which will help you keep and grow the gap to them. It seems like the US isn't sending their all. US Armed forces have sent a lot of stuff from their storage so they can renew them, which increases your combat readiness. Some of these weapons would have had to be dismantled in a few years because of old age(old fuzes, explosives and chips will malfunction), now they are giving you goodwill and dismantling your enemy's equipment.
Remember that every tank Ukraine's Armed Forces destroy is one less you have to match in Eastern Europe to help defend your allies for years to come.

Stingers for instance are decades old technology, not part of your military doctrine and has been used to destroy Russia's best helicopters and fighter planes to the point they don't dare to fly them over Ukraine most of the time. You can send 100% of your stingers and it will not lower your military's capability in any way. They are meaningless to you.

If you take a step further out and think about it this way; these costs are pretty benign for the US compared to say the Iraq war or the Afghanistan war, the manhattan project or the moon landing. Yet you are sending a limited supply of a portion of your capability, putting it in the hands of people who a few weeks ago had no experience or training with them, and they are blowing the Russian military to shreds.
Early on in the war Ukrainian sources gave a journalist statistics on their use of the American Javelin Anti Tank Guided Missile, 93% of the times it had been fired in anger, it had led to a kill of the tank it was fired upon. Even this missile isn't a core resource to the US arsenal, it is an 1990s afterthought; "yeah well I guess we could kill a tank like this as well, if we ever need to".

No one in their right mind thinks Russia is a match for the US military anymore.

This is american exceptionalism at display in front of the entire world;
*It's way cheaper than the Manhattan project, and gives more goodwill than nuking Hiroshima/Nagasaki.
*It's way cheaper than the Moon landings, but it does the same thing; it displays with utmost clarity that you are technologically and militarily obscenely superior to your enemies.
*Ditto for the Iraq war. While you then displayed your cartoonishly overpowered military capabilities it ended up costing trillions $, lives and international goodwill.
*This aid to Ukraine costs no American lives, is cheap, while still displaying your technological and military superiority extremely pedagogically.

This is American exceptionalism on display in front of the entire world, in a positive way, such as we have not seen for half a century. Star-sprangled awesome.

Edited By: Gerdler on Jun 7th 2022, 0:51:55

Gerdler

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Jun 7th 2022, 0:23:08

In other words TL;DR = I regret to inform you; while the game has just started, you are currently winning in a landslide(EU isn't, but you are), and the only thing that can can threaten this almost foregone conclusion is your own lack of willpower and mental fortitude(like spending more time whinging about gasoline prices instead of seeing the big picture).

Gerdler

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Jun 7th 2022, 0:42:24

Ohh yeah, 1981 was the last year US GDP change was higher on relative terms than China's GDP growth. This year that 30-year streak looks like it's ending. Sure it's helped by China's zero covid strategy and idiotic lockdowns, but the portions of your economy that wasn't booming now is.

Who would have thought the Gas and oil industries would do so well across the board under Biden's presidency? I bet you some far-lefties are crying blood over this right now. :)

Knocking over Keystone XL pipeline was badly timed and actually idiotic, though I'm not sure the Biden administration understands that. One could hope.
An idiotic proposal which the lefties will likely do soon is an extra windfall tax on the oil industry which will greatly hamper domestic energy security and your ability to supply your allies with energy in this final stretch.

That said the majority of the foreign policy dealings by the Biden adm has been absolutely impeccable in this crisis. Blinken is solid AF!

I'm also half thinking that Biden makes strategically sound gaffe's these days, such as when he calls putin a war criminal and calls for regime change. Everyone in Europe agrees with that and rallies behind that. When the responsible spokepeople walk it back it gives you cover, but the words have been spoken and it's for the better.
Same applies for Taiwan and saying US will militarily defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion, then having others walk it back. This ambiguity means China can't risk invading for a few more years, and by that time someone better than Xi could be in charge. This is "gaffe", deliberate or not, may have been hugely important for US and global security.

g0nz0

Member
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Jun 7th 2022, 23:37:10

Originally posted by Gerdler:


(Insert anti American/oligarch sponsored destructive policy) was badly timed and actually idiotic, though I'm not sure the Biden administration understands that.

(Graceful 360 ballerina spin)

That said the majority of the foreign policy dealings by the Biden adm has been absolutely impeccable in this crisis.

(Trips, faceplants)

I'm also half thinking that Biden makes strategically sound gaffe's these days, such as when he calls putin a war criminal and calls for regime change.


Point to us on the doll where bad orange man touched you. Here, take this pill and put these VR goggles on. Sshhh...sshhhh..everything's going to be fine. It's all better...you're safe now...

KoHeartsGPA

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Jun 8th 2022, 19:03:05

I can't take anyone that claims Biden is sane and on top making good decisions seriously, sorry bro SMH, I'm out.
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

HEMPMAN1

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Jun 8th 2022, 19:17:04

^^This^^

HEMPMAN1

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Jun 8th 2022, 20:52:57

I do not like your mental haze. I do not like your leftist ways. I do not like your son on blow. I do not like you Sleepy Joe.

BROmanceNZ

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Jul 4th 2022, 2:54:11

Gerdler: Here is a long winded but thorough discussion about how the US is coming out on top in all aspects of this current global fluff show. Also, Biden hasn't been the monumental fluff up people thinks he has.

Everyone else: fluff YOU, SLEEPY JOE IS SATAN!

KoHeartsGPA

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Jul 4th 2022, 16:09:10

LOL just LOL, the man can't even form a sentence SMH, the delusion is REAL
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

BROmanceNZ

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Jul 4th 2022, 23:28:11

Oil and gas barons, and arms dealers in the US are making bank while every day people struggle at the pump and worry about being shot by bad guys with mental illnesses.

But the doddery old fluff who babbles is the source of all your problems. Lol.

KoHeartsGPA

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Jul 5th 2022, 1:35:43

Head of the snake, yes, now that I'm using liberal logic why doesn't it apply to this administration???? See, your logic is not logical, thanks for playing!
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

BROmanceNZ

Member
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Jul 5th 2022, 1:49:45

It can apply to this administration. It can apply to any administration past or future.

Gas barons, oil oligarchs, and arms dealers would be making bank right now regardless of whether you had Biden, Trump, Sanders, Clinton or no one. Your government doesn't die when the president does, those pulling the strings and making backroom payments pad out any and every wallet they can if it's advantageous; liberal/conservative, establishment/independent, big name/small fish.

Spending all your energy on a single president doesn't fix anything. Didn't fix anything for liberals and the left focused on Trump, ain't gonna fix anything for those of you fixated on Biden.

KoHeartsGPA

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Jul 5th 2022, 1:53:59

Cost of living more than doubled in less than two years, and Biden's administration played a huge roll, when you kill the energy sector..... Don't tell me I'm wrong cuz I'll laugh at you.
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

BROmanceNZ

Member
382

Jul 5th 2022, 10:11:49

How is the energy sector dead? Many of the largest oil companies have already bounced back to pre-pandemic profits, oil production is set to hit a record high by 2023, and apparently Biden has approved more drilling permits than Trump in their first years compared. Gas prices have been rising since the start of the pandemic (before Biden was in power), and the Keystone XL pipeline would have only added around 0.5m barrels per day (and wouldn't have been finished until 2023 anyway).

Russian crude oil only made up 3% of US imports in 2021. Like Gerdler says, Europe is far more dependent on Russian oil. The war and the global sanctions are more likely to affect Americans by way of the fact that US oil producers can get more money *now* sending oil to Europe, reducing domestic supply and raising local prices. And, like pointed out before, they're making good profits.

As for the cost of living, that's rising everywhere. Not just the US. Doubled in less than two years? Yeah, again. That's happening a lot globally: https://www.pewresearch.org/...-high-and-getting-higher/ Some places have it worse and they're not fluffhole places - South Korea, the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Israel.

I'm not going to say you can't be angry at Biden because he said he likes renewable energy. I'm just unconvinced that he is the bad guy for the reasons you claim he is.

KoHeartsGPA

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Jul 5th 2022, 12:43:57

Right, and you don't think Biden's green new deal policies have any negative impact on the energy sector and everything he's done that lead to doubling energy costs in the US is nonsense....lol wow, ok.
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

BROmanceNZ

Member
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Jul 6th 2022, 1:21:13

Have they negatively impacted the energy sector? Probably. But please tell us how Biden's specific climate change policy changes are the most significant factor in doubling US energy costs.

All I'm saying is that Biden's changes have been but a ripple compared to the pandemic and the Russo-Ukraine war.

KoHeartsGPA

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Jul 6th 2022, 16:41:40

Must be tasty Kool aid.
Mess with me you better kill me, or I'll just take your pride & joy and jack it up
(•_•)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6VRMGTwU4I
-=TSO~DKnights~XI~LaF=-

S.F. Giants 2010, 2012, 2014 World Series Champions, fluff YEAH!

BROmanceNZ

Member
382

Jul 6th 2022, 22:46:05

Originally posted by KoHeartsGPA:
Must be tasty Kool aid.


Only fatties and children drink Kool Aid.