This was from August last year and that's the only data I found in my old PMs, but this continued for several days the same way.

I know, I know, it's a gaussian formula or w/e, it's not a clean lesser SPAL bounces vs greater SPAL sort of thing. And this is a small sample, so it's like the guy who says he didn't make any missiles in 1500 turns - just bad luck with the random factor (except, as I said, this continued for days).

But lesser SPAL shouldn't succeed, no matter what the random factor, at 60% on a harmful op like bomb structures against a better SPAL country. The formula works for intel ops but for harmful ops it just doesn't. That was 10% of my buildings lost that day, to a guy with a worse SPAL than me, that also took out tons of CS, and it happened again the next day and the next. A country with similar but worse SPAL should succeed something closer to a 15% rate on harmful ops imo. 60% is absurd.