I don't understand what I'm missing in my calculations:

I spy:

R: troops
U: turrets
A: tanks
W: weapons percentage
L: 110% for good luck
D: 125%^2 for defense allies

And calculate an SS like this:

(R+U*2+A*4)LWD

But I still lose in Primary about 66% of the time. I have solid success in Express and Tournament using (R+U*2+A*4)LW so I don't know what's wrong with my D. What's wrong with my D?