https://www.nytimes.com/...avirus-death-toll-us.html


Pennsylvania

March 15 – Nov. 7

total excess deaths
12,400

percent above normal
15%

per 100k people
97


those numbers have about a 2 week lag, plus probably a bit extra with an undercount near the end, but you cant really use the average to project out because the excess deaths were much higher early on when testing was less common

so probably somewhere between 340-350k more people have died than normal vs current death toll of 256k

maybe you need to subtract a bit for general aging and rising pop but not a huge amount

also some death causes will have dropped some will have risen, but overall its all caused by covid

we wont get a good picture until we do serology testing afterwards as to total infections and therefore real hospitalisation and death rates, but theres a chance vaccinations will make that impossible so we might be stuck with the last numbers we get before large scale vaccination