Apparently, that's what this article claims...

"A study in Lancet medical journal claims the first person diagnosed with COVID-19 was identified on December 1."

https://m.economictimes.com/.../articleshow/74870327.cms

So many lives could have been spared...not to mention the world economy... WOW.


Thanks China!

Not like your country dealt much better with it.

It was around Dec 20 that the Chinese doctor started spreading that there was a new SARS-like virus with cases around Wuhan. He was arrested, and the Chinese state started reacting well and with force around the 10th of January. Time was lost there its true. But your government has had 3 months more to act and you are actually doing worse, same as many others who had ample time to prepare.

Tl;dr: China wasted 3 weeks, you wasted 3 months. Glass houses and all that...

dunno how that would've changed the cheeto in chief's piss-poor response to this whole epidemic.. but, okay boomer?

"Cheeto in chief" Rofflamfao

Maybe the united states is testing more people and able to get confirmed cases? I mean hell something is up when a Billion population country living in substandard conditions has less confirms than a 300m pop country.

Hypothesis: US has better testing capabilities resulting in a higher number of confirms.

Has nothing to do with Trump. Didn't know he made our day to day choices for us. I must have missed the memo every morning.

Yeah the US testing capabilities are obviously far better now than China had access to in January or February. The death toll is the only true measure (as long as its being accuratly reported) and the US will pass China on Tuesday or Wednesday in total fatalities.

Testing reduces the Case Fatality Rate(CFR) but not the Infection fatality rate(IFR).

I think Trump is doing a great job in assuring people that there is a life after this epidemic and he has greased the wheels in a good way for the FDA to allow human trials on a vaccine much faster than it usually happens etc etc. However, he also keeps saying things out that are contrary to all science and people who are actually trained in the subject concerning epidemiology, drug trials etc etc, this is objectively bad in a situation like this.

By chance do you think this article could be accurate on china botching its numbers? I know nothing of the festival they talk about but it intrigues me.

https://time.com/...n-coronavirus-death-toll/

I have heard that rumor too... I hope theres substance there.. not because I want chinese people to die but because the anti-democratic forces of the world will get a lot of water on their mill if we all do considerably worse than China in this kind of situation. That frightens me so much more than this weak virus(tm).

What I learned so far from this thread:

- Don't trust Trump.
- China is reporting accurately.
- COVID 19 started in USA.
- Please do trust China.
- continue to watch MSM for accurate news.
- Don't eat Cheetos cuz Trump derangement syndrome.

Carry on :-)

People actually believe that China tells the truth?

for real.. sweet n sour "chicken".... right... that aint chicken fool.. lol

Yes, hilarious, right?

I really dont see what they can get for lying about death toll. But I could see them lying about having it contained.

Identity politics has taken root consuming you with hatred, so sad to see so many sheeple, no I'm not a boomer and by many decades, why so much hate?, you lefties are supposed to be the tolerant loving crowd, nice facade, bro!

Hawk: so they don't look any worse than they already do?

(And clarification: I meant trust China about anything, not just covid.)

Could play it up to get the world's pity and those sweet aid packets from everyone.

I think the opposite. It makes more sense to lie about the death toll initially and since they control the flow of information its really hard to find that out. How could you do it? Buying all news papers and counting obituaries? Do they have obituaries?

On the other hand their measures to control travel right now suggests they have it under control but believe the cost of another outbreak to be too great to risk, so traveling into China mandates you to go into a 14 day quarantine with a covid19 test at the end and several daily body temperature measurements. This is a very costly measure and if they believed in their ability to fight an epidemic effectively they would not take them.
None of those measures make any sense whatsoever if they have a raging epidemic going right now.

I wish it was harder to lie tho, but it becomes a little bit problematic when the white house said 2.1 million test kits were supposedly delivered already 3+ weeks ago. And because the dangers of covid19 was all a hoax a week before that, And because the country would be open by Easter. Etc etc. If others were truthful and honest it would be a lot harder to get away with the real heinous lies that states like perhaps China and Iran are using both within and outside pandemic times.

We ate skunk and infected the world doesn't garner very much sympathy.

(Please take everything I say with a grain of salt- I have no facts really to back up anything I say ;p)

I can tell you this: I'm not getting my hair cut at the Chinese barber at the foot of my street ever again.

I feel bad for the Chinese who came to Canada to leave tyrannical China and tried to start a business that I have zero faith in.

Call me racist. If my mother who survived lung cancer and surgery is alive and they lose their business? Blame China. Not me.

Do you even watch the press conferences? Or are you in the media's nest being fed what they want you to hear?

Does his country even broadcast fox news?
(The only honest news source on the planet, ha!)

((I'm not joking- if trump were fishing and fell overboard and walked on water the news media would report it as : trump refuses to get wet))

I don't even bother with any network, even fox gets fluff wrong, I listen to the press conference and use the fluffing internet to fact check it, its.not.that.difficult.

Here's today's press conference...

https://youtu.be/8JnMKJGWhjM

Fact check it :-)

Nine tenths of 99% of the Internet is porn or lies and what a plate of food looked like.

Internet.gets.it.wrong.more.than.anything.else.not.that.hard.

(9/10th of 99% I don't know what that number is.. ha! Too much rye not enough calculators)

Learn to internet then.

You know how I feel about learning, though :(

You tell me that red hot element will hurt me?

Pff, I'll prove you wro.. get me a nurse fluff get me a nurse please!?

This thread started with so much hope..

Honestly you guys are just becoming a bunch of Karen's.

And Cheeto-In-Chief.. awesome.

I dont listen to american mainstream media, I do turn on Trump's/Pence's press conferences every other day or so when Im working at my computer anyway.

Im sure I get it from the source more than you do, and I already commended Trump for his strategy. His strategy would be far more effective if he didn't throw out uninformed information out there all the time tho. You must have seen his Chloroquine debacle - dangerous stuff. When you get information from a PM or a president that a specific drug is helpful, some people will take that as the truth. Fauci corrected him, but the damage is potentially already done.
There have been countless such instances both in regards to this epidemic and with regards to other things; All cargo from Europe was supposed to be banned, and then those remarks were retracted hours later.

Such false statements might seem benign once retracted but they undermine the legitimacy of the message in regards to other things, and thats not helpful right now. Right now people need to believe what is comming from the white house in general, for there to be a calm adherence to the recommendations and the restrictions imposed.

https://youtu.be/JsXdcM1cT_A

We hope for easter but if not then not easter..

LIAR HATER WANTS TO KILL KOREAN WAR VETS!

But China is telling the truth. They put doctors in prison. Do they die from covid or acute lead poisoning to the head? They won't tell us and throw out western journalists but don't worry whatever they tell us you'd be foolish not to believe.. BUT TRUMP LOOKS SLIGHTLY ORANGE!!

There is a problem when I'm not the stupidest person in any thread. Like honestly, people..

Yeah the man fumbles quite a bit with his wording and he gets in his own way it seems often, I do like it better when he asks the experts to explain things, but yeah I can see how people get frustrated with him, he is who he is and his administration has done more than we can hope for, I never seen the federal government move so swiftly in a crisis ever, and I've been living in this country for all of my adult life, the part that bothers me is people will concentrate on the negatives and disregard all the good and keep pounding the negatives til the good is overshadowed by the negatives, that too is dangerous for the country, just look at Italy where the government literally said "If you're over x age we won't help you" that's ok I guess? No not at all and I don't think you're ok with that either.

Italy never said that. It's the ethical principles of the health care system at work. they look a little different in every country, but basically theres a choice you have to make when you have equipment to save 1 person but 2 are in need of it.
I can't speak for the italian guidelines but most are something like this;
1. If one patient has a higher chance of survival with the treatment, he is the one who gets it.
If no difference then;
2. If one patient has a higher chance of survival up to a year from now, if the treatment has positive outcome
If no difference then;
3. If one is expected to have a longer life ahead of him, ei so called biological age* is lower(not chronological age) then he gets the treatment. *Biological age may put a fit, otherwise healthy 80-year old at a lower age than a 70-year old obese, diabetic smoker with COPD.

Im sure the same applies in the US, if the health care system is pressured enough. They are already talking about sharing ventilators, which is a very dangerous practice perhaps for all patients involved, as individualized settings cant be made.
The measures taken to slow down the spread are all to avoid choices like that to be forced upon health care workers.

In some hospitals in northern Italy and in Spain these priorities are already being made but theres no point to misrepresent the situation or pretend like if they are doing something that wouldn't happen elsewhere if faced with the same situation.

even wuhan residents don't believe their government's death toll numbers

https://news.yahoo.com/...oronavirus-164859600.html

Can't really be critical of China throwing doctors in prison when many people in the western world are throwing the baby out with the bath water with regards to freedoms. I'd be more concerned at what's happening in your own country rather than status quo Chinese realpolitik

Hey Trife, check this out, bro!
https://youtu.be/a2o-udUXCZk

NAILED IT.

Lmao 10/10 KoH Hahahaha

KoH these points you are trying to make are all misrepresentations of what actually is being said. If you don't want a discussion then maybe don't make a thread that can be responded to.

I said I hope China lied and that I don't rule it out at least on the death toll.

I said Trumps strategy on talking about positive things on this 'war against covid19' is sound but it would be better still if he didn't often slip up and say things that are objectively false or misrepresentations of current science/policy/expert opinion.

No one here has ever suggested that covid19 started in USA.
The spanish flu might have been started in the USA tho. Still no apology and no reimbursment for the victims families, or for the economic cost... As if that was ever on the table then or now. :)

You had to use all 10 of your IQs in this thread, is that what you are saying?

Here is an interesting video to watch, made by a guy who's wife is Chinese and he has spent considerable amount(s) of time there. No major implications here but there are a few interesting things he does point out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1F_kWYdqUY

I don't know why anyone would trust anything China says / releases in regard to how their handling of COVID is/was.

------------------

The entire reason to reduce the curve, so to speak, is not to reduce the number of people infected but to reduce the spike so that hard life or death decisions based on supplies don't need to be made. It may seem harsh to hear that a doctor (or nurse) has to make a decision such as who gets a life saving breathing machine and who doesn't but that is their reality(Italy) and they have to live with their decisions.

Healthcare provides try to save everyone who enters their doors, at least in the US.

Lastly I leave you a public service announcement: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-Q5fJTgx_E

China did :p

To be fair, the president never said "I'm going to open up the country by Easter" he said "I would like to open up the country or sections by Easter" yet you stated he said he would open it, that's why I questioned where you got your news, I've been listening to every press conference, I know what he said.

He is also backing off that stance. It's not a bad thing for him to have a 'goal' as long as he keeps evaluating it as his goal approaches.

I believe he is deferring a lot of his decisions to the experts behind the scenes which is what I want my president to do.

It is suspected that 20 million people died in China during February.

Good input here, thank you!

Req if you have no guidelines for how to deal with a massive increase in intensive care, when the resources for example ventilators are not enough its time to rethink now unless you want even more fatalities.

Keeping the ICU needs lower than the ICU capacity is about keeping the fatality rate low. If someone that could have been saved by say a ventilator doesn't get it thats an entirely preventable fatality. Imperial college, in their modelling study, assumed that about 2x as many people would need ICU care than that would eventually die, which means the fatality rate could potentially more than double if ICU capacity is totally overwhelmed(assuming that other branches of healthcare somehow is not overwhelmed in such a situation), since not everyone who dies actually gets to an ICU first.
I don't know how accurate that is, but its still the only really exhaustive estimate of the effects I have found:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/...-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

-----

The whole thing about trusting China or not is a farce in this thread. You got an official number which should be scrutinized, and it has been and its an ongoing process. But what some posters here seem to imply is that their imagination is a better guide for how many fatalities actually occurred in Wuhan, and that anyone scrutinizing their fantasies are naive.

When it comes to the many urns there could be an entirely logical explaination in that Hubei province(which was locked down) has 70m inhabitants and if the crematoriums have been shut off for some weeks you would be looking at a backlog of around 1500-2000 corpses per day dying from non-covid19 related diseases and old age, that the lockdown was active for that needs to be worked through. Assuming a 4 week backlog that is up to about 50000 dead that needs to be cremated/buried in that province.
Either way since the only objection to the chinese numbers so far is 'It's China, so they are obviously lying', which does not stand up to even the most basic scrutiny, you can't make up any number more credible than the official chinese number.
I am not a friend of China. I dare say that my post a few months ago about China is the harshest critizism of them anyone ever voiced on any EE forum, and I stand by them.

Maybe you missed the point? A reduced curve lowers the number of people that would require a ventilator at one time thus making supply not as much of an issue in theory. Our societies are so connected and interdependent it is hard to imagine you can reduce the number of people who get it over the course of the outbreak, but a lower curve helps with medical supply issues as it spreads out the number of cases over time and thus not straining the resources you have all at once. It can also give you more time to ramp up production of needed supplies which we are doing. Keeping supply of items in excess of demand is key to saving more lives as it is expected that lots of people to be infected regardless.

I admittedly did not read every post here but my gut response to seeing USA having more confirmed cases than China makes me LOL. I'm sure there will be more to come from this.

Confirmed cases are always going to be lower than actual cases... theres nothing about that which is strange at all and its true for all countries at all times. Indeed if you tested no one you would have 0 confirmed cases. But that doesnt eliminate the disease, does it?

Assuming the data on fatalities IS correct, however, means that with a high degree of certainty the US has more actual infected people than China ever had. The confirmed cases have very little to do with that tho. And of course if we decide to assume that the chinese numbers are bogus despite having no solid proof they are we cant make this assertion.

If you look at france they have had fatalities in parallell to the US fatalities for the past 2 weeks or so and they have 1/4th your confirmed cases. It baffles me that people dont connect whats going on there. Obviously France and the US have had about the same number of actually infected people, and the testing capacity is just higher in the US. It is also clear that Italy and Spain has had more infected people than has the US even tho the confirmed cases are far lower, again this is due to lower capacity in testing.
Testing on its own doesn't cure the virus. Testing positive or negative has to lead to some kind of decision for it to have an effect. China, Spain, Italy, France, Great Britain solved their lack of testing with broad lockdowns and restriction to travel and even just being outside their homes.

If its true that medical professionals are restricted from making priorities also in catastrophic scenarios like this could become then you might have more fatalities than otherwise. I hope that is not the case.

Sharing of ventilators is already happening sadly:
https://www.nytimes.com/...s-ventilator-sharing.html

So you are in fact resource deprived already, and you are solving it by risking 2 patients lives:

https://www.asahq.org/...e-patients-per-ventilator

This is suboptimal as well clearly.

I don't know if ventilator sharing is being done in Europe, and I don't know if it leads to better outcomes than giving individualized care to those who can be saved and they have resources to save.

849 new deaths in last 24hr for Spain....95k infected

https://youtu.be/EauxMIunmRA

False.

~95k confirmed cases. Maybe 1-3m infected.