Not only are the braves the best team in the nl, but their fifth year, five time allstar catcher just won the allstar MVP award

they are going to win the championchip for Bobby and chipper, mark my words

go braves!

p.s. I hated the Yankees, but I feel for them, losing a icon and an owner in one week

No Bob Sheppard, he was the public address announcer for the Yankees. He has introduced every Yankee from Joe Dimaggio to Derek Jeter since 1951. He also announced the NY Giants games for 50 years.

the braves won't even win the nl east

WTF are you basing that on? Because we are 4 games up on the mets and like 7 up on philli, and the braves have always been a second half team, they make pushes like no other, making up 10 games last season on September

you can hate all you want, but back your fluff up or fluff off

let's see, i'm basing it on the facts that (1) the phillies have won the division three straight years, (2) the phillies have won the national league the last two years, (3) the phillies are 4.5 games back, not your wishful thinking 7, (4) the phillies have been even better in the second half of the season than the braves in recent history, and (5) the phillies had a ridiculous number of injuries in the first half of the season. phils will steamroll the division as guys keep coming off the dl.

lol @ the "pushes like no other." making up 10 games in september and still missing the playoffs hardly compares to the phillies making up 7 games on the mets in september to win the division a few years back.

braves have had a very nice season so far, but they haven't accomplished anything yet.

Braves have had their fair share of injuries as well, from jurjens to rookie of the year canidate heyword

I'll take it that ur a phillies fan so u can have ur wishfull thinking, but fact is braves are the best team in the nl this season, and they have much more to play for with chipper and Bobby leaving this year. Just wait and see

I'll agree the braves havnt been great in the last few years, but they are usually comming into the second half around 5-8 games back, so well see how it turns out when they go in 4 games up.

GO CARDINALS!!!

mrford: When I first saw your post, I was thinking I'd be ripping apart every single aspect of what you said, as I assumed my baseball knowledge was up to the same level it usually is at this point.

However, as I look more, I am impressed with the stats of the Braves. I'm still going to argue why I disagree that they're the best team in the NL though.

They do currently have the best record in the NL, but their other stats tell the story of a very good team, but not the best team.

For instance, one key stat that almost always catches up to teams over the course of 162 games is run-differential. You can catch good breaks, get clutch hits, and generally get lucky for awhile, and in fact, some teams go the whole season, but most don't. At +69 on the season, the Braves have a good run differential, and they are the best in the NL East. However, they are only 4th in the NL, behind San Diego (+85), St. Louis (+82) and San Francisco (+72).

So overall, this is a key stat where they are 4th of 16 NL teams. Good enough for top 25%, but certainly not the best.

Next, let's look at Pitching. I'm going to use two stats that are excellent for giving a far better indication of how a pitching staff is doing than either of the two tradition stats (W/L record and ERA).

First, let's look at FIP, which is designed to grade pitching based on things the pitcher actually has control over (for a far more in-depth discussion on FIP, there's a link at the end). The Braves are 6th in FIP in the NL, although admittedly, there is a top-tier of teams that probably includes them, as there is a pack of really good pitching teams at the top, then it falls quickly after that.

Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) is the other I'd like to look at, where the Braves, at 1.29 are listed as 3rd in the league behind pitching powerhouse San Diego and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Even if you go with basic stat of ERA, the Braves are again very good, but overshadowed by these two teams, as the Braves are 4th in ERA.

For Hitting, the Braves are a slightly above average team any way you look at it. Whether I looked at OPS, wRAA, wOBA, or about any other sabermetric stat, they come in around 6th place. For ISO (a power stat), they're well below average, being only 11th in the NL.

If you go down their lineup, there's no standout big bat that will scare a pitcher either. Their best OPS guy is Prado at .852, which is certainly good, but not anything spectacular.

I'll also add that I feel that just from the point of view of being a fan of another team, I don't fear the Braves like a fear other teams in that division, so I certainly hope the Braves keep playing well enough and the Phillies keep playing poorly enough that the Braves win that division, as it's currently a slim chance the WC will come from the East.

Having said all that, this post is getting kinda long, so I'll start a new one to tell you who IS the team to beat in the NL. :)

Link for FIP Description: http://www.fangraphs.com/...values-explained-part-two

Ok, so the Braves are a very solid team, but despite their league-leading record of 55-38, they're not the best.

So who is?

The St. Louis Cardinals (and homer-alert, this is my favorite team).

2nd best run differential in the NL (+82)

They finish just slightly ahead of the Braves in virtually every pitching statistic that attempts to measure overall pitching performance.

They finish equal to or better than the Braves in every offensive category.

They have 3 season-long regulars with a better OPS than that of the Braves' BEST offensive player (Pujols, Holliday, Rasmus post OPS's of .988, .925, and .889 respectively).

And furthermore, the Cardinals actually have UNDERPERFORMING players holding down their offense, like Brendan Ryan at SS and Skip Schumaker at 2B.

Now typically the last part isn't really a noteworthy thing to mention, as you could easily make the case 8 guys each with an .800 OPS might be better than 8 guys with varying OPS's that average out to .800, since you can't pitch around the first lineup.... HOWEVER! If the Cardinals get back injured pieces like David Freese at 3B (allowing IF Felipe Lopez to play either 2B or SS) or acquire a middle infielder via trade, they can drastically improve their offense by eliminating a black hole. The Braves can't upgrade a bunch of .750-.850 OPS guys to better their offense the way the Cardinals can.

I'd also contend that the Cardinals have a more intimidating pitching staff, with Wainwright being a Cy Young contender again after finishing 3rd last year, Carpenter being a very very good pitcher again after finishing 2nd last year, and Jaime Garcia putting up a performance that might put him in the conversation against Atlanta's Heyward for RoY honors.

And that's without Brad Penny, who is spending his annual time on the DL early in the season. If he can come back and pitch like he did early in the season (3.23 ERA, 3.44 FIP).

So yeah, I'm gonna say the Cardinals!

However, I was shocked to see just how solid the Braves are this year, and I am rooting for them to stay ahead of the Phillies both for sentimental reasons of it being Bobby Cox's last year and because I'm far more frightened of the Phillies than the Braves in a post-season series.

Wow, just wow. Let me break it down for you

you just spent probably what was an hour or more, trying to convince a braves fan, that your team, the cards are better

all your points are valid, and the stats you pulled out of your ass are accurate and impressive. But as a great sports figure (that I can't remember right now) stats are for losers

I'll pull out the ever present and extreemly frustrating scoreboard aggument

braves are ahead. True tou swept is in like the first 20 games of the season, but the first 20 games are a crap shoot. I look forward to meeting the cards again because I feel that the braves and the cards will meet in the nl finals, and it would be a very good series

bottom line, braves have alot to play fore, and some emotional goals, and this, I think, is giving them the edge.


P.s wait till heyword gets back

if stats are for losers then ill say it, Tony La Russa, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday. there is your trump card :)

Just imagine how good the Rangers would be if they weren't bankrupt...

What are you talking about the Rangers are still good...but I don't see us signing Cliff Lee in the offseason.

Damn, braves lost in 12 to the pads. That was a flippin great game

ford: I didn't think I'd convince you. I just like arguing sports. :)

And those stats usually are a much better indicator of what will happen over a full season. If your Braves are still ahead of the Cardinals at the end of the season, I'll certainly concede that the Braves are better.

And if you're going to play the "Wait 'till Heyward gets back," I'll respond with "Wait 'till Brad Penny, Kyle Lohse and David Freese get back."

Again, let's go to my loser-ish stats! :)

Judging by WAR (Wins Above Replacement) a great stat that accounts for both offense and defense, Jason Heyward is the best player of that list of players, being valued at 2.2 wins above replacement so far this season, which for a rookie, is pretty damn good.

However, the Cardinals with those three players have taken a far bigger hit total, as Freese is worth 1.4 WAR so far, Penny 1.1 and Lohse 0.8, totalling 3.3 wins.

So if you want to play the card that the Braves will be even better in the future because Heyward will be back, the Cardinals will be better because presumably at least 2 of those 3 players will come back sometime this season.

Furthermore, the Cardinals are starting to play to their potential. They were underperforming big time in the first half, mostly because of the performances of the two big bats (Pujols and Holliday). However, Holliday has always been a second half player, and in approximately the last month (since June 18) he's clubbed 12 home runs, as opposed to the 6 he had the rest of the season.

Also, with the offense clicking a little more due to the contributions of Holliday, rookie Jon Jay, and others who have picked it up, the Cardinals have not lost since the All-Star break, playing two of the scarier NL teams in LA and Philly.

And oh yeah, let's look head-to-head, as you alluded to.

In head-to-head matchups, the Cardinals are 4-0 against the Braves, outscoring them 25-11 in that series. And again, I know the Braves didn't truly get hot until later than that, but the Cardinals didn't get hot until now.

Lastly, to reiterate what I brought up in the first set of posts, I'll take the starpower of St. Louis in a 5 or 7 game series over Atlanta any day of the week.

St. Louis has 2 guys with a .900 OPS or better in Holliday and Pujols, a third guy with an OPS just under .900 in Rasmus, and the #2 and #3 guys in the league in ERA, and oh yeah, neither one of those guys is Chris Carpenter either (who comes in at #10).

Atlanta has one pitcher in the top ten (Hudson #8), and no one on offense that can match the production of any one of St. Louis's top THREE hitters.

And oh yeah, somehow I forgot our other middle of the lineup guy, Ryan Ludwick, who is also hurt and should be returning sometime soon (and he's a 2.4 WAR player, actually better than your prized rookie outfielder Heyward).

I hope neither of these teams fizzle out and we get an NLCS between the two ford. It'd be fun to watch. :)

Well, both the braves and cards have a history if fizziling :(

especially the braves, winning a record 14 pennants in a row and only getting one ws ring, and even that one was in the strike shortened year.

Trust me, I'm under no allusions about the braves, but this is the best we have played in 7-8 seasons, and it is all but certian that it is future hall of famer chipper jones, and future hall of famer Bobby cox's last season. So braver are going to let them go out in style!


Edit: I would really like to post a massive stat rebuttle and get into this argument, but 90% of my Internet time is spent on this hellish, auto correcting, iPod touch, and any posts longer than this make me wNt to pully hair out lol

lol

Then I look forward to a post in the future if you get time. :)

You're definitely right about the Braves fans finally having a season to really cheer for again though. And it's awesome that it's happening during this last season for Cox. He deserves to go out a winner.

just found this and was gonna post something more then go braves until i started reading your giant ass wall o text. holy hell people. there needs to be a character limit here. writing books shouldnt be allowed


go braves

Don't want to read it?

Don't read it.

He's loves his team as I do mine

who by the way, after suffering a heart breaking 12th inning loss to the padres last night, rallied and beat them 8-0 in a mid afternoon game today

good turnaround and go braves!

And that's fine.

But I'm a writer. I don't get constrained by character limits. I also don't write for others, but for myself. I wasn't writing those posts because I was really thinking I'd change your mind. I was writing them because I love to write, and sports is one of the easier and more fun things to write about.

And while this probably seems snippy, it's not meant to be. But if he wants to talk about his team, he should do it and he shouldn't be deterred just because I wrote a couple long posts.

i dont mind talkin stats back and forth or the usual trash talk. what gets me is just starin at your many chapters im damn near winded and have the urge to breath into a paper bag


well that and the fluffers at dish network deny me espn when something good comes on. wanted to watch strassburg weds but couldnt

lol

Note to self: To beat kemo in any argument, just write a LOT.

Brooks Conrad ftw

his grandslam was just the cherry on the top of a 8 run 8th inning. Taking a 2-5 game to a 10-5 game

go braves!

Oh, and heyward is back, and has 5 multi hit games in a row

he was 3-3 tonight. 3 singles, 2 runs, 2 walks, and a stolen base. Rookie of the year!

as long as they dont trade him like they did the other excellent young players

No it wasn't, it was the year after the strike. They don't out world series rings when there isn't a world series. However, on that note, had the 94 season not ended due to styrike, atlanta would have been in the show, and would have taken it because 94 was when they really started getting hot and had the momentum to go all the way(plus cleveland would have made it to the series too, and well.. woulda lost like they did in 95 to the braves lol)

sides, being a hardcore braves fan, I'd hate to break it to you, but San Diego is the team to beat, not St. Louis.


also,

atlanta is a better hitting team than the cards, not much but according to mlb.com they rank better in the nl hitting column than both st louis and san diego. as far as pitching goes, each team is ranked up there so high, and have similar stats all around that they'd match out pretty equally. The deciding factor between all three teams isn't the hitting, not the pitching, its the fielding and san diego is far better defensively thus far.

now lets look at things historically, simply because you can't always tell whats going to happen just by whats going on at the current moment...

in the last ten years, the cards are only marginally better than atlanta hitting, however atlanta has the winningest pitching squad from 99-current. They also have the best fielding historically over the last decade than the other two teams. Why historically, well, for most of the last 19 years atlanta has been a second half team, coming from behind to sneak in and get into the playoffs and steal a pennant. san diego and st louis really aren't known too well for their second hal;f exploits, at least not like atlanta. Right now it's at the part where its gut check time for every major league team and nobody performs better than Atlanta.

so with that, my predictions are

NL Post season
Divisional
Atlanta vs Cincinnati - Atl 3-1
San Diego vs St. Louis(WC) - SD 3-0

League Championship
Atlanta vs San Diego - Atl 4-2

Despy: Not sure exactly where you're getting your info, but when I looked at mlb.com at most of the hitting stats, St. Louis finishes 1st out of the 3 teams we're discussing. In batting average (a practically worthless stat for judging a team's offensive potential) they're both at .262 for the season. In OPS, they're virtually the same as well, but St. Louis has a very slight edge over Atlanta, and they're both ahead of San Diego.

For pitching, San Diego and St. Louis are neck and neck in the ERA race and have a significant lead over 4th place Atlanta (3.27, 3.29, 3.66 respectively).

So St. Louis is a (very) slightly better hitting team than Atlanta, and a much better pitching team, whereas San Diego has actually a pretty poor offense (14th in OPS), but is (very) slightly ahead of St. Louis in offense.

San Diego is a better defensive team, but overall, there's a reason why pitching and offensive numbers are what is talked about during free agency. There's a reason why players like Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez get paid monstrous amounts of money, and it's because what they do with the bat overshadows their defense. There certainly can be times when bad defense can catch up to you, but overall, the difference between average defense and great defense is a lot smaller than between average offense and great offense.

Anything can certainly happen in the small sample size of the post-season, but overall, I'll take my chances with a playoff rotation of Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia and a lineup that includes Pujols, Holliday and Rasmus over any of the other lineups/rotations we're discussing.

And oh yeah, what happened in 1999 doesn't matter to this year. The only things that are the same about these teams are two of the three managers. If you want to look at last 3 years, that might be more meaningful, since there would be significant parts of the rosters that would be the same, but 1999-current is a good ole' arbitrary baseball time period.

You might as well tell me that Atlanta is going to win the World Series because on Tuesday night road games, they're undefeated.

i don't know about you guys, but i'm convinced the best team in the league is five games below five hundred on the road.

they've won the series already, haven't they?

I'm assuming you're referring to the Phillies. They are a team I still find a threat, but they've done nothing this year to show they're the "best team."

It's certainly a valid argument for any of the 3 (and maybe add in the Reds) that we've been discussing, but at the current time, you can't really argue the Phillies.

Like I said in the earlier threads to ford, I hope the Braves stay ahead of the Phillies, because the Phillies seem like the prototypical scary playoff series. They've got a pitching staff that could easily rival San Diego or St. Louis in 5 or 7 game series, and a lineup that, if it clicks, is probably the best in the NL.

However, you don't get any trophies for being the best team on paper, and the Phillies are quite a few games behind the Braves and the Wild Card lead.

Players like Derek Jeter get paid monstrous amounts of money because they are on a baseball team with a 206 million dollar payroll. Ramirez is pretty much useless right now, being out for the next 2+ weeks, and will probably just go right back on the DL again, and should just stay out the rest of the year being a 38 year old outfielder and constantly injuring the same leg.

a better argument would be mentioning omar vizquel, not only does he not allow a ball to get past him, he basically forbids it from passing him, and on top of that he's a good hitter. and the final icing on the cake for omar is, he's is a real nice guy in person.

Well, when he has been in the lineup, he's been very good, posting a .925 OPS.

However, my main point was that offense is paid for because it's far more important. Even Manny Ramirez is going to make most of the plays in left field. Even Adam Dunn makes most of the plays at 1st.

So the idea that San Diego's defense is going to make up for the fact that in OPS, they're 14th of 16 teams in the NL is something I just don't see. I think when it comes down to it, San Diego is too reliant on completely shutting down the other offense to win in October.

just because he catches the ball when it's thrown to him, that doesn't mean he makes most of the plays. There is a lot more to fielding the three than catching the ball with your foot on the bag.

And no, when it comes to actually fielding, adam dunn does not hold his own against anybody. Catching a ball hit directly at you does not mean Manny will make most plays in left field.

The ground you cover, people, your ability to make a hit into an out... this is defensive baseball. being in a position to field after throwing the ball, this is defense (somebody tell that to mitch williams, er, i mean francisco rodriguez)

look! it's the amazing shrinking lead in the division!

steamroll steamroll steamroll

braden: I fully recognize what you're saying. I'm certainly not suggesting that the difference between Manny and a good defensive outfielder, like say Carl Crawford, is insignificant.

I am, however, saying that the difference between an average and a great defensive player is FAR less than between an average and great offensive player.

Let's take a test example from 1st base:

Player A has always been a great defensive player and is still certainly an above average player. He's still a capable batter, but is a slightly below average player offensively.

Player B is not just a bad defensive first baseman, but one of the worst, using the UZR/150 metric. He is, however, a very good offensive first baseman, posting an OPS right at .900 this season.

Player C is also a bad defensive player, although this season, he's listed as only slightly below average according to UZR/150. He's also posting a very good .927 OPS so far.

Player D is rated as one of the best defensive players in the majors at first base right now according to UZR/150, but is probably one of the worst hitting 1st basemen to still be the starter on his team.

Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as is compiled by fangraphs.com, the Player A, again with above average defensive production and below average offensive production, is worth only 0.5 wins overall this season. This player is the Cubs' Derrek Lee.

Player B is worth 2.9 wins so far, despite his terrible defense. This player is the Brewers' Prince Fielder.

Player C is worth 3.0 wins so far, again, despite being below average on defense. This player is the Nationals' Adam Dunn.

The final player, Player D, the great defensive player, is worth only 0.1 wins, because his stellar defense just barely makes him equal to the imaginary "replacement player" because his offense is clearly below average. This player is Casey Kotchman of the Mariners.

Again, the idea here isn't that defense isn't important. The idea is that if you could have either Prince Fielder or Casey Kotchman on your team, and your goal is to win this year, you'd be a fool to value Kotchman's defense over Fielder's offense.

Despy was making the point that San Diego was a "team to beat" over the Cardinals. San Diego is the best defensive team, but 14th in the NL in offense, whereas St. Louis is solid both offensively and defensively.

you know what's gonna be annoying?

when both the Cardinals and Braves end up in 2nd place and the Giants get the Wild Card.

I really have to say I hope Philadelphia can't catch Atlanta, despite the evidence to the contrary this past week.

Philli won't catch us. We will win the division. I think that the mets have a better chance of catching us than the phillies

you've just proven that you're utterly delusional.

Meh, maybe so, but I'm a fan. What fan doubts their team?


On a side note damn that was a good ten inning wn against the reds alst night

i was only referring to the part about the mets

how bout manny's dodgers btw

as long as the pirates dont win fluff. thatd look pretty sad ya know

I'm starting to get worried about my Cardinals. I've been operating under the assumption that we'd start getting players back from injury and our current "neck and neck with the Reds" team would improve to being significantly better than the Reds.

However, Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse (40% of our original starting 5) are still injured, and while we now have Jake Westbrook to fill one of those spots, we're still down our starting 3B too in David Freese, who was a reasonably good player.

The loss of Freese in itself isn't a monumental loss, but now Felipe Lopez will continue to play third, when I'd much rather see Skip Schumaker or Brendan Ryan sitting on the bench with Lopez in the middle infield, as both Skip and Ryan have been pretty terrible with the bat all year.

The Cardinals still have the monster rotation, and still have a very potent 3 bats in the middle of the lineup in Rasmus-Pujols-Holliday, but our lineup, outside of those 3 guys, is pretty weak so far.

I think the Cardinals are 50/50 on getting to the playoffs, as the Reds didn't get any better.

In the East, I'm starting to worry about the Braves, but there's still a lot of baseball left. I hate to see anyone injured, but Ryan Howard's injury could be just the thing to cool off the Phillies and keep the Braves on top.

GO CARDS!
GO BRAVES!

phils who have gone on the dl this year:

6 of the starting 8 position players
3/5 of the original rotation
5 members of the original bullpen

just brutal.

but, still gaining on the braves.

http://espn.go.com/..._/name/atl/atlanta-braves

arguing about players on the dl is incredibly stupid, because this is baseball. fluff, I think every starter for the braves has been on the dl this year, so it's a mute point. I mean really, this ain't the ir list of football, it's the dl

who's "arguing" about the dl? stating facts = arguing?

is a mute point like a moo point?

braves have had more that on their DL, so your point is moot, thats all i was saying


edit: in responce to your last comment, i do most of my typing on my ipod, and it auto corrects fluff, so it replaced "moot" with "mute"

see, now *you're* arguing about the dl. and you're wrong.

braves:

August 5, 2010 Placed RHP Kris Medlen on the 15-day DL.
August 2, 2010 Placed 2B Martin Prado on the 15-day DL .
July 16, 2010 Placed LHP Eric O'Flaherty on the 15-day DL.
June 28, 2010 Placed OF Jason Heyward on the 15-day DL .
June 16, 2010 Placed RHP Chris Resop on the 15-day DL.
June 11, 2010 Placed OF Nate McLouth on the 15-day DL.
June 4, 2010 Placed RHP Takashi Saito on the 15-day DL.
May 25, 2010 Placed OF Brent Clevlen on the 15-day DL.
May 15, 2010 Placed OF Matt Diaz on the 15-day DL; transferred OF Diory Hernandez to 60-day DL.
May 5, 2010 Placed SS Yunel Escobar on the 15-day DL.
April 15, 2010 Placed LHP Jo-Jo Reyes on the 15-day DL.
April 4, 2010 Placed INF Diory Hernandez and OF Jordan Schafer on the 15-day DL.

13


phillies:

August 3, 2010 Placed 1B Ryan Howard on the 15-day DL.
July 28, 2010 Placed OF Shane Victorino on the 15-day DL.
June 29, 2010 Placed 2B Chase Utley and 3B Placido Polanco on the 15-day DL.
June 22, 2010 Placed C Carlos Ruiz on the 15-day DL.
June 17, 2010 Placed LHP Antonio Bastardo on the 15-day DL.
May 22, 2010 Placed SS Jimmy Rollins on the 15-day DL.
May 9, 2010 Placed C Brian Schneider on the 15-day DL, transferred RHP Ryan Madson to the 60-day DL.
May 1, 2010 Placed RHP Ryan Madson on the 15-day DL.
April 22, 2010 Placed LHP J.A. Happ on the 15-day DL.
April 14, 2010 Placed SS Jimmy Rollins on the 15-day DL.
April 4, 2010 Placed RHP Joe Blanton, RHP Brad Lidge and LHP J.C. Romero on the 15-day DL.

14

neener neener.

Fabrications!

I didn't double count a single braves dl, I see atleast one double counted Philly

either way, u kinda proved my point, both teams have fairly similar dl lists, so ur orignal statment was moot!